Extending audience reach in messaging campaigns using probabilistic ID linking

A server receives incoming data records comprising an ID value and respective user attributes corresponding to a user activity that originates at a user device. Characteristics of the activity and/or characteristics of the user device are considered in order to assign a probabilistic confidence value, which is in turn used to generate links from an incoming data record to other previously-received data records, and in so doing, generates a probabilistic link between one set of user attributes from the incoming data record and another set of user attributes from previously-received data records. A messaging campaign specification that describes target user attributes is used to identify a matching set of target audience member records. The determination of a match or not is based on the probabilistic confidence value and a threshold can be varied to extend audience reach. The identified set of target audience member records are transmitted over a network.