Disruption forecasting in complex schedules

A method for forecasting time delays added to a scheduled start time and a scheduled end time of a task includes generating a stochastic model of the task and resources affecting the task, the stochastic model includes a reactionary delay component that is a function of previous task end times and a...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser: Cogill, Randall L, Palmes, Paulito, Shorten, Robert, Mevissen, Martin, Wirth, Fabian R, Marecek, Jakub
Format: Patent
Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:A method for forecasting time delays added to a scheduled start time and a scheduled end time of a task includes generating a stochastic model of the task and resources affecting the task, the stochastic model includes a reactionary delay component that is a function of previous task end times and a root cause delay component that is an independent random process at a specific time. The method further includes: calculating a probability distribution of time delays added to the scheduled start time as a combination of the reactionary delay component and the root cause delay component using the stochastic model to provide a probability distribution of start times; and calculating a probability distribution of time delays added to the scheduled end time as a combination of the reactionary delay component and the root cause delay component using the stochastic model to provide a probability distribution of end times.