Proactive simulation and detection of outbreaks based on product data

Embodiments of the present invention relate to proactive computer simulation of portable product failures, and more specifically, to determining the likely cause of an outbreak of foodborne disease or other geographically distributed symptoms of a failure or contamination of a portable product. In one embodiment, a method of and computer program product for simulating portable product failures is provided. Data regarding the locations of consumers of a portable product within a geographic region is received from a data store. A probability density map is determined from the data, indicating where the portable product is likely to be consumed within the geographical region. For each of a plurality of simulated failures of the portable product, the locations of a plurality of simulated incidents arising from the simulated failure are determined. From the locations of the plurality of simulated incidents and the probability density map, the number of incidents necessary to identify the portable product to a predetermined certainty is determined.