Goal-attainment assessment apparatus and method

An apparatus for assessing goal attainment may include a preprocessor configured to define a goal of process, all probable final results, attributes, a process execution period, and time points of assessment, acquire or check attribute values from one or more historical process instances that match the defined goal of process, all the defined probable final results, the defined attributes, the defined process execution period, and the defined time point of assessment, and extract one or more event profiles from the attribute values of the process instances; and a likelihood calculator configured to calculate prior and posterior probabilities of an ongoing process instance based on the extracted event profiles, and calculate a probability that the ongoing process instance attains each probable final result according to each time point, using the calculated prior and posterior probabilities at the defined time point of assessment.