Statistical heart rate monitoring for estimating calorie expenditure

Systems and methods are disclosed for tracking physiological states and parameters for calorie estimation. A start of an exercise session associated with a user of a wearable computing device is determined. Heart rate data is measured for a first period of time. An onset heart rate value of the user is determined based on the measured heart rate data, the onset heart rate value associated with a lowest valid heart rate measured during the first period of time. A resting heart rate parameter (RHR) of a calorimetry model is associated with at least one of the onset heart rate value, a preset RHR, and an RHR based on user biometric data. Energy expenditure of the user during a second period of time is estimated based on the calorimetry model and a plurality of heart rate measurements obtained by the wearable computing device during the second period of time.