METHOD OF CALCULATION OF FORECAST FOR EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF SKIN MELANOMA

FIELD: medicine.SUBSTANCE: invention refers to medicine, namely to oncology, and can be used in order to predict the early progression of skin melanoma. Method of the invention comprises determination, among homogenates, the samples of tumor tissue and of the visually unchanged tissue that is adjacent to it (the peritumoral zone), which are taken during surgical treatment for skin melanoma, by the method of immunoenzymatic analysis of levels of IL-6 cytokines in tumor tissue, IL-2 and IL-1β in the tissue of the peritumoral zone. DNA is analyzed in skin melanoma tissue using the flow cytometry method. Clinical assessment of the prevalence of the disease is carried out, then the individual risk of progression of skin melanoma according is calculated according to the formula,where K is the forecast coefficient, z is the linear regression coefficient, which is calculated according to the formula z = (-4.1+0.065⋅X1+0.037⋅X2+1.06⋅X3+3.81⋅P-5.56⋅A), where X1 is the content of IL-6 in the tumor tissue (pg/ml/g), X2 is the content of IL-1 β in tissue IZ (pg/ml/g), X3 is the content of IL-2 in tissue IZ (pg/ml/g), while the nominal values are ranked as follows: prevalence of the tumor process (P): 0 - local, 1 - common, 2 - generalized (G), as well as the presence of the aneuploid or diploid cell clone (A): 1 - aneuploid clone, 0 - diploid clone, at the K value that is equal to or greater than 0.64, the high risk of early progression of skin melanoma is predicted, at the K value that is less than 0.64 - the low risk of early development of skin melanoma is predicted.EFFECT: use of the invention allows to calculate the risk of early progression of skin melanoma.1 cl, 2 ex, 7 tbl Изобретение относится к медицине, а именно к онкологии, и может быть использовано для прогноза раннего прогрессирования меланомы кожи. Способ по изобретению включает определение в гомогенатах образцов ткани опухоли и прилежащей к ней визуально неизмененной ткани (перитуморальной зоне), взятых при хирургическом лечении по поводу меланомы кожи, методом иммуноферментного анализа уровней цитокинов ИЛ-6 в ткани опухоли, ИЛ-2 и ИЛ-1β в ткани перитуморальной зоны. Методом проточной цитометрии анализируют ДНК в ткани меланомы кожи. Проводят клиническую оценку распространенности заболевания, затем рассчитывают индивидуальный риск прогрессирования меланомы кожи по формуле, где К - коэффициент прогноза, z - коэффициент линейной регрессии, рассчитываемый по формуле z=(-4,1+0,065⋅Х1+0,037⋅Х2+1,06⋅Х3+3,81⋅