METHOD OF FORECASTING OF POPULATION HEALTH CONDITION

FIELD: medicine. SUBSTANCE: method is based on genetic relations "environment-health" which include medical and clinical examination, donosologic diagnosis of prepathological states and disturbance of homeostasis of the most sensitive contingent of population living in different ecological zones. Method also includes determination of significance of indices which indicate population health level and creation of mathematical; model for estimation of combined interaction of complex of factors affecting the condition of health. Ecological zones are represented by homogeneous sections of territory characterized by stable behavior in them of indices of population health condition and environmental factors. Empirical data on multiplicative coefficients for every factor and resultant traits and real multiplicative coefficients of general combinations of "environment-health" system are determined by ecological zones. Then they are compared and if condition r > 0.999, where r is correlation coefficient is satisfied, stable structure "environment-health" is forecasted for given ecological zone. Complex of environmental factors affecting the population health condition for territories, which bear technogenic load on lower part of geological medium associated with pumping-in and extraction of large liquid volumes when developing oil deposits, includes additionally values of specific technogenic load and tectonic ruggedness of region territory being examined. In this case, technogenic load for subsystems of national economy complex and in total is determined as relation of density of technogenic objects per unit of area, and tectonic reggedness of territory is determined as relation of lineament density per unit of area. EFFECT: enhanced accuracy and truth of forecasting. 4 cl, 2 tbl, 2 exp