DYNAMIC TIMETABLE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM AND DYNAMIC TIMETABLE MANAGEMENT METHOD, AND TRAFFIC SOLUTION SYSTEM USING DYNAMIC TIMETABLE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

To provide operation prediction closer to an actual condition in real time by taking the influence of a delay caused by interaction between a congestion and the delay into account.SOLUTION: A dynamic timetable management system 10 includes a congestion information acquisition part 102 for acquiring congestion prediction, a probability operation prediction generation part 103 for generating probability operation prediction obtained by representing at least one of stop time and travel time included in a route on the basis of an operation situation, and a dynamic timetable creation part 104 for creating a dynamic timetable obtained by rewriting arrival times at stops and start times from the stops included in the route by rewriting times determined by using the congestion prediction and the probability operation prediction, and the dynamic timetable creation part 104 determines the rewriting times by using an accumulation probability calculated on the basis of the congestion prediction.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1 【課題】混雑と遅延の相互作用による遅延の波及を考慮し、より実態に近い運行予測をリアルタイムに提供する。【解決手段】動的時刻表管理システム１０は、混雑予測を取得する混雑情報取得部１０２と、運行状況に基づき、路線に含まれる停車時分及び走行時分の少なくとも一方を確率分布で表現した確率運行予測を生成する確率運行予測生成部１０３と、混雑予測及び確率運行予測を用いて定めた書換時刻により、路線に含まれる停車場への到着時刻及び停車場からの出発時刻を書き換えた動的時刻表を作成する動的時刻表作成部１０４を有し、動的時刻表作成部１０４は、混雑予測をもとに算出する累積確率を用いて書換時刻を決定する。【選択図】図１