PREDICTION DEVICE, PREDICTION METHOD, AND PROGRAM

To provide a prediction device that predicts a demand amount of a resource necessary in an infection disease countermeasure.SOLUTION: A prediction device comprises: an inspection accuracy estimation part for estimating the accuracy of an inspection of an infection disease; an infection state estimation part for estimating an infection state in a target prediction area based on a real infection rate from the accuracy of the inspection and on the number of medical examinees or the predicted value of the number of medical examinees of the inspection in the target prediction area; and a demand amount prediction part for predicting a demand amount of a resource to maintain a sanitary function based on he number of infected people indicated by the infection state.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1 【課題】感染症対策で必要となるリソースの需要量を予測する予測装置を提供する。【解決手段】予測装置は、感染症の検査の精度を推定する検査精度推定部と、前記検査の精度に基づく真の感染率と、予測対象エリアにおける前記検査の受診者数又は前記受診者数の予測値とに基づいて、前記予測対象エリアの感染状況を推定する感染状況推定部と、前記感染状況が示す感染者数に基づいて、衛生機能を維持するためのリソースの需要量を予測する需要量予測部とを備える。【選択図】図１