POWER GENERATION AMOUNT PREDICTION DEVICE, POWER GENERATION AMOUNT PREDICTION SYSTEM, POWER GENERATION AMOUNT PREDICTION METHOD, AND POWER GENERATION AMOUNT PREDICTION PROGRAM

To provide a power generation amount prediction device, a power generation amount prediction system, a power generation amount prediction method, and a power generation amount prediction program that can improve the accuracy in predicting the amount of power generation without handling various types of data.SOLUTION: A power generation amount prediction device 11 has a power generation amount/insolation amount actual insolation amount classification unit 1101, a power generation efficiency calculation/determination unit 1102, a power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103, a predicted insolation amount category determination unit 1104, and a power generation amount prediction unit 1105. The power generation amount/insolation amount actual insolation amount classification unit classifies a set of actual insolation amount values into a plurality of insolation amount categories. The power generation efficiency calculation/determination unit acquires power generation efficiency for each of the actual insolation amount values. The power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit acquires a coefficient for each of the insolation amount categories on the basis of the power generation efficiency. The predicted insolation amount category determination unit identifies an insolation amount category to which the insolation amount category containing an insolation amount prediction value belongs. The power generation amount prediction unit acquires a power generation amount prediction value on the basis of the insolation amount prediction value and the coefficient of the insolation amount category containing the insolation amount prediction value.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1 【課題】多種のデータを扱うことなく、発電量を予測する精度を向上させることが可能である発電量予測装置、発電量予測システム、発電量予測方法及び発電量予測プログラムを提供する。【解決手段】発電量予測装置１１は、発電量・日射量実績日射量区分部１１０１と、発電効率算出・判定部１１０２と、発電効率係数算出部１１０３と、予測日射量区分判定部１１０４と、発電量予測部１１０５とを持つ。発電量・日射量実績日射量区分部は、日射量実績値の集合を複数の日射量区分に区分する。発電効率算出・判定部は、日射量実績値ごとに発電効率を取得する。発電効率係数算出部は、発電効率に基づいて日射量区分ごとに係数を取得する。予測日射量区分判定部は、日射量予測値が含まれている日射量区分がいずれの日射量区分であるかを判定する。発電量予測部は、日射量予測値が含まれている日射量区分の係数と日射量予測値とに基づいて発電量予測値を取得する。【選択図】図１