RELIABILITY EVALUATION SYSTEM, RELIABILITY EVALUATION METHOD AND PROGRAM

To provide a reliability evaluation system capable of improving accuracy in stability estimation of a power system.SOLUTION: A reliability evaluation system 1 has a reliability evaluation unit 113, a system state comparison unit 114, and an evaluation model switching unit 115. The reliability evaluation unit 113 enters a reliability evaluation model for evaluating supply reliability of power supplied by a power system, and acquires at least any one or more of an overload margin, a transient stability margin, a voltage stability margin, and a frequency stability margin as an evaluation index of the supply reliability. The system state comparison unit 114 determines whether or not a magnitude of an offset of a first feature amount, from a second feature amount obtained based on an actual system state in the power system is equal to or larger than a predetermined value. The evaluation model switching unit 115 switches a reliability evaluation model, when the magnitude of the offset of the first feature amount from the second feature amount is equal to or larger than the predetermined value.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1 【課題】電力系統の安定度推定の精度を向上することができる信頼度評価システムを提供する。【解決手段】信頼度評価システム１は、信頼度評価部１１３と、系統状態比較部１１４と、評価モデル切替部１１５と、を持つ。信頼度評価部１１３は、電力系統が供給する電力の供給信頼度を評価するための信頼度評価モデルに入力し、過負荷余裕、過渡安定度余裕、電圧安定度余裕、周波数安定度余裕のうちの少なくともいずれか１つ以上を供給信頼度の評価指標として取得する。系統状態比較部１１４は、第１特徴量と、電力系統における実際の系統状態に基づいて求められる第２特徴量との乖離の大きさが所定値以上であるか否かを判定する。評価モデル切替部１１５は、第１特徴量と第２特徴量との乖離の大きさが所定値以上の場合、信頼度評価モデルを切り替える。【選択図】図１