MANUFACTURING PERIOD PREDICTION APPARATUS, MANUFACTURING PERIOD PREDICTION METHOD, AND COMPUTER PROGRAM

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To accurately predict a manufacturing period for an order even in the case where there is a product class with low occurrence frequency where orders are grouped on the basis of each product class.SOLUTION: A manufacturing period prediction apparatus 100 creates a process-to-pass pattern based occurrence rate prediction logic using a manufacture specification for an order as an input and a process-to-pass pattern based occurrence rate for the order as an output and a process-to-pass pattern based manufacturing period distribution, on the basis of manufacture achievement data. Thereafter, the manufacturing period prediction apparatus 100 inputs a manufacture specification included in order data to the process-to-pass pattern based occurrence rate prediction logic and determines a process-to-pass pattern based occurrence rate on each order included in the order data. Then, the manufacturing period prediction apparatus 100 calculates an order-based manufacturing period distribution by using the process-to-pass pattern based occurrence rate and the process-to-pass pattern based manufacturing period distribution, and calculates an order based manufacturing period by using an order based manufacturing period distribution and a target cargo-ready achievement rate.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1 【課題】 注文を品種ごとにまとめた場合に発生頻度の低い品種が存在する場合でも、注文の製造工期を高精度に予測する。【解決手段】 製造工期予測装置１００は、注文の製造仕様を入力とし、当該注文の通過工程パターン別の発生率を出力とする通過工程パターン別発生率予測ロジックと、通過工程パターン別製造工期分布を、製造実績データに基づいて作成する。その後、製造工期予測装置１００は、注文データに含まれる製造仕様を通過工程パターン別発生率予測ロジックに入力し、当該注文データに含まれるそれぞれの注文の通過工程パターン別発生率を求める。そして、製造工期予測装置１００は、通過工程パターン別発生率と、通過工程パターン別製造工期分布とを用いて注文別製造工期分布を算出し、注文別製造工期分布と、目標荷揃達成率とを用いて、注文毎の製造工期を算出する。【選択図】 図１