PARAMETER ESTIMATION APPARATUS, PREDICTION DEVICE, METHOD AND PROGRAM

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a parameter estimation apparatus which obtains parameters for accurately predicting the behavior of an operator to improve the prediction accuracy.SOLUTION: A prediction device 1 comprises a parameter estimation apparatus 2. The parameter estimation apparatus 2 estimates, as parameters and based on input information, a potential topic at each point in time for each operator, a probability of that a visiting place is selected following one visiting place and a probability of that the visiting place to related with the topic is selected, and an influence value calculated using the number of features and the number of topics; calculates, based on the estimated parameters, a tendency value for the visiting place where each operator subsequently visits for each operator; and converts the influence value into an influence value calculated by the number of features and the number of visiting places.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2 【課題】動作主の行動を精度よく予測するためのパラメータを得て予測精度の向上を図る。【解決手段】予測装置１はパラメータ推定装置２を備える。パラメータ推定装置２は、入力情報に基づき各動作主の各時点の潜在トピックと、ある訪問場所の次に訪問場所が選択される確率およびトピックに対する訪問場所の選択確率と、特徴量数とトピック数とを用いて算出される影響値とをパラメータとして推定し、推定したパラメータに基づき動作主毎に各動作主が次に訪問する訪問場所の傾向値を算出し、影響値を特徴量数と訪問場所数とにより算出される影響値に変換する。【選択図】図２