EVALUATION METHOD AND EVALUATION DEVICE OF PROBABILITY OF LIQUEFACTION OCCURRENCE DURING TARGET PERIOD

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an evaluation method of a probability of liquefaction occurrence during a target period capable of estimating the probability of liquefaction occurrence at a target point during a target period based on a probability of earthquake motion occurrence and capable of contributing to a variety of constructions and civil engineering.SOLUTION: This evaluation method includes: a process (R1) of obtaining liquefaction determination value information for determining a risk of liquefaction of a target ground for an earthquake motion strength index S; a process (R2) of converting this liquefaction determination value information into a liquefaction risk level shown by a probability of earthquake occurrence; a process (R3) of obtaining an earthquake hazard curve of the target ground; a process (R4) of obtaining the probability of earthquake occurrence during a target period t by this earthquake hazard curve; and a process (R5) of obtaining the probability of liquefaction occurrence during the target period t by multiplying the liquefaction risk level and the probability of earthquake occurrence so as to be integrated by an earthquake motion strength index S.