PASSENGER FLOW ESTIMATION SYSTEM AND METHOD AT OCCURRENCE OF RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION FAILURE

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a passenger flow estimation method at the occurrence of a railroad transportation failure for determining a passenger flow estimation model by on-line.SOLUTION: A passenger flow estimation system at the occurrence of a railroad transportation failure includes: a passenger data input unit 1 for inputting passenger data at the occurrence of a transportation failure in the past; a passenger data edition unit 2 for editing passenger data for predicting a passenger flow change at the occurrence of the transportation failure; a passenger data input unit 7 for inputting passenger data at the occurrence of the transportation failure; and a computer 3 for estimating the passenger flow change at the occurrence of the transportation failure. The computer 3 includes: a storage/accumulation unit 4 of storing/accumulating the passenger data at the occurrence of the transportation failure; a fragmentation pattern generation unit 5 of generating a fragmentation pattern of explanatory variables; a model formula generation unit 6 of generating a model formula for each pattern; a passenger flow change prediction unit 8 of predicting a passenger flow change accompanied by the transportation failure which has occurred; an evaluation unit 9 of evaluating each model formula; and an update unit 10 of updating the significance of each model.