INITIAL PURCHASE ESTIMATION DEVICE, INITIAL PURCHASE ESTIMATION METHOD AND INITIAL PURCHASE ESTIMATION PROGRAM
PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To enable estimation of an initial purchase by a user having no purchase record.SOLUTION: According to a MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) algorithm, a parameter estimation part 18 determines a decision ability parameter λ for each of estimation target users on the basis of an in...
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| creator | UCHIYAMA MASASHI TAKAYA NORIKO NAGANO SHOICHI ICHIKAWA YUSUKE |
| description | PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To enable estimation of an initial purchase by a user having no purchase record.SOLUTION: According to a MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) algorithm, a parameter estimation part 18 determines a decision ability parameter λ for each of estimation target users on the basis of an index distribution representing a probability distribution during an initial period of time until an initial purchase from an initial browsing, a likelihood of the decision ability parameter λ to be calculated on the basis of the initial period of time and a prior distribution of the decision ability parameter λ based on a marketing variable. A statistical value calculation part 20 estimates, on the basis of a value of the decision ability parameter λ, expectation values about probability that a user will implement an initial purchase during a designated period of time and a date on which the initial purchase will be implemented, for a web site where there is a browsing activity of a user and there is no purchase record. |
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| subjects | CALCULATING COMPUTING COUNTING DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING PHYSICS SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR |
| title | INITIAL PURCHASE ESTIMATION DEVICE, INITIAL PURCHASE ESTIMATION METHOD AND INITIAL PURCHASE ESTIMATION PROGRAM |
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