INITIAL PURCHASE ESTIMATION DEVICE, INITIAL PURCHASE ESTIMATION METHOD AND INITIAL PURCHASE ESTIMATION PROGRAM

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To enable estimation of an initial purchase by a user having no purchase record.SOLUTION: According to a MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) algorithm, a parameter estimation part 18 determines a decision ability parameter λ for each of estimation target users on the basis of an index distribution representing a probability distribution during an initial period of time until an initial purchase from an initial browsing, a likelihood of the decision ability parameter λ to be calculated on the basis of the initial period of time and a prior distribution of the decision ability parameter λ based on a marketing variable. A statistical value calculation part 20 estimates, on the basis of a value of the decision ability parameter λ, expectation values about probability that a user will implement an initial purchase during a designated period of time and a date on which the initial purchase will be implemented, for a web site where there is a browsing activity of a user and there is no purchase record.