EVACUATION TIME PREDICTION APPARATUS AND EVACUATION TIME PREDICTION METHOD

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To obtain a precise prediction result in a short time for predicting evacuation time from a building having plural stories.SOLUTION: An evacuation time prediction apparatus 10 is an apparatus for predicting evacuation time from a building having plural stories with stairs, which comprises: a model generating section 11 that generates a model of a building in which stairs are assumed as continuous cells for receiving refugees from each story, and that each story is connected to any of the cells corresponding to the story; an initial state input section 12 that inputs an initial state of the number of refugees in each cell in the model; a transition state calculation section 13 that calculates the number of refugees in each cell in a unit time from a cell closer to an escape door based on a state of previous time and a horizontal entry ratio, etc. that represents a ratio of refugees entering into the cell of the stairs from the story; an escape completion determination section 14 that determines whether the escape has completed, and calculates the number of refugees in each cell in the following time based on the determination; and an output section 15 that outputs the calculated evacuation time.