EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE PREDICTION METHOD

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an earthquake damage prediction method which is capable of performing highly-reliable damage prediction.SOLUTION: The earthquake damage prediction method includes: a seismic deformation calculation step of calculating seismic deformation due to an earthquake in the case where a building is contracted to a single-degree-of-freedom system, by an equivalent linearization method, and calculating the seismic deformation by using a modification coefficient of equivalent linear seismic deformation and a modification coefficient of an attenuation correction coefficient which are defined as random variables; a response drift angle calculation step of calculating a response drift angle of the building from the seismic deformation; a story drift angle calculation step of determining a probability distribution of response story drift angles due to the earthquake on the basis of simulation targeted at a building group; a damage ratio calculation step of determining a relationship between strength of the earthquake and a damage ratio from past earthquake damage results; a limit drift angle calculation step of calculating a limit drift angle of the building on the basis of the probability distribution of response story drift angles and the damage ratio; and a damage prediction step of predicting occurrence of damage of the building by comparing the response drift angle with the limit drift angle.