DEMAND FORECAST DEVICE, DEMAND FORECAST METHOD, AND DEMAND FORECAST PROGRAM

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a demand forecast device, demand forecast method, and demand forecast program capable of calculating a highly accurate demand forecast value, before sale and regardless of the time of sale, even for a commodity drastically variable in sales. SOLUTION: The demand forecast device 1 comprises: an existing commodity information DB 100 for storing existing commodity information; a new commodity information DB 200 for storing forecast target commodity information; a new commodity belonging segment determination part 400 for determining similarity between the existing commodity information and the forecast target commodity information; a commodity category total demand value calculation part 600 for calculating a commodity category total demand value for all existing commodities included in a demand forecast target commodity category; a segment representative commodity share wave-form parameter calculation part 500 for calculating a sales ratio of a similar existing commodity to the sales of all the existing commodities based on the similar existing commodity information, and calculating a sales trend in time transition of the calculated sales ratio; and a new commodity demand value calculation part 700 for calculating a sales forecast value for the demand forecast target commodity based on the commodity category total demand value and the sales trend. COPYRIGHT: (C)2008,JPO&INPIT