SECULAR RISK EVALUATION METHOD FOR STRUCTURE FACILITY AND SECULAR RISK WARNING ISSUING METHOD FOR STRUCTURE FACILITY USING THE SAME METHOD AND ITS DEVICE AND PROGRAM

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To eliminate the necessity to analyze material deterioration or corrosion tendency using a high level analyzing technology in evaluating the secular risk of a structure facility, and to apply this invention even to a facility where the physical mechanism of the damage or failure of the facility is unknown, and to provide proper information in consideration of the characteristics of maintenance history data or the uncertainty of evaluation. SOLUTION: The logical probability density distribution of failure generation is determined based on failure generation frequency distribution to an elapsed period from the use start of a facility, and the lower limit value and upper limit value of a reliability limit are calculated by performing the division estimation of the probability parameter of the logic probability density distribution, and a plurality of probability density distribution is calculated by applying the lower limit value and upper limit value of the reliability limit of the probability parameter to the logic probability density distribution, and the minimum value and maximum value of the probability distribution of the failure generation to the elapsed period from the use start of the facility are calculated based on the plurality of probability density distributions, and the failure generation probability section of the facility at the evaluation is estimated. COPYRIGHT: (C)2007,JPO&INPIT