ESTIMATE METHOD AND DESIGN METHOD FOR FAULT INCIDENCE PROBABILITY OF DATA NETWORK

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To assist the design and dimensioning of an optical data network and to enhance the robustness of the optical data network. SOLUTION: This invention relates to the estimation of a fault incidence probability of the data network that has at least one transmitter, a propagation means, a component attenuating or amplifying power and at least one receiver. In this invention, the data network is subdivided into individual point-to-point connection paths at which respective fault incidence probabilities can respectively individually be estimated, and the overall fault incidence probability of the data network is defined as subtraction of the fault incidence probability indicating simultaneous incidence of faults of two point-of point connection paths or over from the sum of the fault incidence probabilities of the respective independent point-to-point connection paths.