Methods of determining the risk of developing alzheimer's disease dementia

It is provided a method of determining the risk of developing Alzheimer's disease dementia in a subject, comprising: (a) determining in a sample of the subject comprising mitochondrial DNA, the methylation pattern in the D-loop region, and/or in the ND1 gene of the mitochondrial DNA; and (b) combining the methylation pattern of one or more sites determined in step (a), with at least one clinical variable of the subject, wherein said combining is performed using a classification model for determining a risk score which correlates to the risk of developing Alzheimer's disease dementia in the subject. A classification model, oligonucleotides, and kits to perform the method, are also provided.