An apparatus, method and computer program product for determining a level of risk

A method and apparatus for determining a level of risk that a future transfer will exceed a level of reserve is provided. The method comprises steps to obtain data S6002 of transfers between financial institutions which have occurred at a number of instances of time, the data including transfer amounts. A predictive model is applied S6004 to the data to obtain a prediction of the transfer amount at each instance of time, and a maximum residual between the prediction of the transfer amount and the transfer amount at each instance of time is determined S6006. The maximum residual for each instance of time is modelled S6008 using a generalised extreme value distribution to obtain a distribution function, and the level of risk that a future transfer between financial institutions will exceed the level of reserve is determined S6010 based on the distribution function which has been obtained.