Determining potential ranking for petroleum plays

Geological survey data of a geographical area including a basin is received (904), and predicted values (e.g. probability that a property associated with a characteristic (source rock, reservoir, seal) applies to a portion of the basin) are generated (908) based on the data, each value indicating a probability that a first portion of the basin includes a first characteristic. A set of polygons is generated (912) that represent the basin based on the values, each polygon representing a portion of the basin of the same value. A basin score is calculated (916) for the basin by (i) generating a presence score for each polygon (920) using the value, and (ii) generating the basin score (924) by aggregating the presence score of each polygon (Fig. 5). The basin score is displayed (928) to determine an area where drilling a wellbore would likely result in success. Exploration potential ranking (804 in Fig. 8) for future petroleum plays can therefore be determined by receiving geological survey data of a geographical area. An effectiveness score indicating a predicted effectiveness of the first characteristic may also be generated and combined with the predicted value for a polygon to calculate the basin score.