METHOD FOR DETERMINING UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEL OF A SEDIMENTARY BASIN

The invention is a method for determining uncertainties of a property of a sedimentary basin, comprising determining realizations of a spatial distribution of the property for combinations of uncertain parameters of a stratigraphic simulation or of a basin simulation, applying a principal component analysis to the realizations, and determining an approximate analytical model of the spatial distribution of the property by constructing an approximate analytical model for a selection of components whose sum of eigenvalues is greater than a predefined threshold. The approximate analytical model is iteratively improved by determining, at each iteration, at least one additional combination of uncertain parameters by adaptive sequential planning applied to the approximate analytical models of the selected components taken in descending order. The uncertainties of the properties are thereafter determined from the approximate analytical model.