Uncertainty estimation method and system for nonlinear dynamic model of heat supply building

The invention provides an uncertainty estimation method and system for a nonlinear dynamic model of a heat supply building, and relates to the technical field of building modeling, and the method comprises the steps: constructing a nonlinear heat transfer equation among three independent heat storage units, namely a hot water radiator, a building envelope and indoor air; constructing a nonlinear dynamic model of the heat supply building according to the nonlinear heat transfer equation among the three independent heat storage units; acquiring actual building data, and estimating an optimal parameter vector of the nonlinear dynamic model according to the actual building data and based on a genetic algorithm; based on a fuzzy set theory, a membership function is designed, a basic element set composed of an optimal parameter vector and all possible optimal parameter vectors is measured by using the membership function, and a fuzzy level value is determined, so that a fuzzy cut set is obtained as an uncertainty r