Small reservoir real-time dam break risk early warning method based on engineering characteristics and runoff conditions

The invention belongs to the technical field of hydraulic engineering, and particularly relates to a small reservoir real-time dam break risk early warning method based on engineering characteristics and runoff conditions, comprising the following steps: establishing a dam safety assessment model system; determining a dam safety evaluation system; constructing a flood combination scene set; generating a random flood series; carrying out dam break simulation; establishing a dam break risk rate calculation model; and real-time dam safety early warning is carried out. The method has the advantages that on the basis of a traditional early warning system, factors such as engineering and hydrology are further integrated, flood forecasting uncertainty is more fully considered, a small reservoir dam risk quantification calculation mode is iterated, dam safety early warning reliability is further improved, and the result is more representative and scientific. 本发明属于水利工程技术领域，具体涉及一种基于工程特性和径流条件的小型水库实时溃坝风险预警方法，包括以下步骤：建立大坝安