Photovoltaic system reliability analysis method based on output prediction

The invention discloses a photovoltaic system reliability analysis method based on output prediction, and relates to the technical field of power equipment control. Specifically, the accuracy of photovoltaic system reliability analysis is improved from four aspects of photovoltaic output feature and prediction, output modeling of different weather types, component reliability modeling and a Monte Carlo algorithm introducing adaptive sampling. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, predicting photovoltaic output by using photovoltaic meteorological data and output data, and establishing a photovoltaic output model; according to the parameters of the photovoltaic module, the fault rate of the photovoltaic module is calculated, and modeling is carried out on the reliability of the photovoltaic module; and finally, combining the two models, and analyzing the photovoltaic output reliability by using a Monte Carlo algorithm introducing adaptive sampling. According to the method, the output power of the