Precipitation extrapolation forecasting method

The invention relates to a precipitation extrapolation forecasting method. The method comprises the following steps: step 1, data processing; step 2, estimating a motion field; 3, judging a rainfall life cycle; 4, determining a rainfall coefficient; step 5, precipitation extrapolation forecasting; during radar extrapolation nowcasting, a numerical atmospheric mode is introduced to judge a water vapor source and a water vapor channel, judgment of a rainfall life cycle is supported, physical process analysis is injected into a traditional extrapolation forecasting method based on rule analysis, the physical concept of rainfall formation and development is fully considered, the extrapolation forecasting precision can be effectively improved, and the method is suitable for popularization and application. And nowcasting and early warning of disaster-causing rainstorm are powerfully supported. 本发明涉及一种降水量外推预报方法，包括以下步骤：步骤1、数据处理；步骤2、运动场估计；步骤3、判别降水生命周期；步骤4、确定降水系数；步骤5、降水量外推预报；本发明在雷达外推临近预报时，引入了数值大气模式判断水汽来源及水汽通道，支持降雨生命周期的