Monte Carlo-based natural gas yield risk quantitative evaluation method

The invention discloses a natural gas yield risk quantitative evaluation method based on Monte Carlo. The natural gas yield risk quantitative evaluation method comprises the following steps: step 1, calculating a natural gas yield implementation probability based on a Monte Carlo method; and 2, calculating the dispersion degree of the annual output of the natural gas, establishing a risk grade evaluation matrix according to the dispersion degree of the annual output and the output implementation probability, and carrying out natural gas output risk quantitative evaluation according to the risk grade evaluation matrix. The natural gas yield risk quantitative evaluation method based on Monte Carlo is innovatively established, the risk quantitative theoretical technology is developed and perfected, the yield risk quantitative evaluation model is constructed, the gas reservoir yield implementation probability is accurately predicted, the risk distribution of the yield target is clear, the whole process research f