Regional carbon emission prediction method

The invention relates to a regional carbon emission prediction method. The method comprises the following steps: selecting a carbon dioxide coefficient, an energy structure, energy intensity, economic development factors and population as carbon dioxide emission factors; acquiring energy consumption corresponding to the energy structure, the energy intensity, the economic development factor and the population, and estimating the energy consumption by using a material balance algorithm to obtain the total carbon dioxide emission amount; inputting the obtained total carbon dioxide emission into a carbon emission LMDI hierarchical decomposition model to obtain driving factors influencing the carbon emission; and inputting the driving factors into the carbon peak reaching prediction model to obtain a prediction result of the carbon emission. Compared with the prior art, the method has the advantages that the carbon up-to-peak related influence factors are selected through the carbon emission LMDI hierarchical dec