Method and system for predicting residual service life of rotary machine

The invention discloses a method and a system for predicting the residual service life of a rotary machine. The method comprises the following steps: extracting a proper health index; establishing a scientific degradation model; establishing a state transition equation and a measurement equation; carrying out degradation model parameter estimation based on a multi-source parameter updating particle filtering method; predicting the residual service life of the rotating machine based on the prediction model; uncertainty evaluation is carried out on prediction results, probability statistics is carried out on obtained results, probability density distribution functions under different failure times are obtained, probability distribution conditions corresponding to all residual service life prediction times are further obtained, and prediction results under different confidence coefficients are provided for decision makers. According to the method, the constructed prediction model is high in universality and high