Disaster outage probability calculation method and system for power distribution network equipment

The invention provides a power distribution network equipment disaster outage probability calculation method and system. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring meteorological data and line operation data; calculating a natural disaster outage probability based on the meteorological data and a pre-created environmental influence outage model; calculating a line fault outage probability based on the line operation data and a pre-created line influence outage model; discretizing the natural disaster outage probability and the line fault outage probability to generate a line comprehensive outage probability; the environmental influence shutdown model is created according to an acquired meteorological data sample, and the line influence shutdown model is created according to an acquired line operation data sample; according to the method, the problem that the disaster-affected outage probability of existing power distribution network equipment is difficult to accurately estimate is solved, and the dis