Method for identifying and controlling associated risk of river and lake water system communication

The invention discloses a river and lake water system connection associated risk identification and control method. The method comprises the steps that correlation is established for obtained key risk factors, and random water regimen conditions are generated to quantify the uncertainty of risk random source and sink items; the risk analysis model is simulated through measured data, and parameters of the risk analysis model are calibrated and verified; carrying out risk scene analysis by combining the characteristics of the river network and the water system of the research area and the identified key risk factors, generating random water regimen conditions as boundary conditions of a risk analysis model by utilizing a Monte Carlo method, and forming a simulation calculation scheme; determining a river and lake water system communication risk level; according to a simulation result of the risk analysis model, comprehensively considering a hydrodynamic index and a water quality index, quantifying a risk probab