Uncertainty prediction method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium

The invention provides an uncertainty prediction method and apparatus, an electronic device and a storage medium. The uncertainty prediction method comprises the steps of obtaining actual operation data of a wind power plant; carrying out preprocessing on the actual operation data; and predicting a preprocessing result by adopting a Monte Cardropout method, and outputting any uncertainty and cognitive uncertainty of the wind power. According to the uncertainty prediction method provided by the embodiment of the invention, the advantages of the neural network and Bayesian probabilistic reasoning are combined, the calculation complexity can be reduced, the cognitive uncertainty and any uncertainty of the wind power can be estimated at the same time, and the prediction precision can be improved. 本申请提供一种不确定度预测方法、装置、电子设备及存储介质，所述不确定度预测方法包括：获取风电场的实际运行数据；对所述实际运行数据进行预处理；采用蒙特卡罗dropout方法对预处理结果进行预测并输出风电功率的任意不确定度和认知不确定度。本申请实施例的不确定度预测方法，结合了神经网络和贝叶斯概率推理的优点，可以减低计算复杂性，而且，该方法可同时估计风电功率的认知不确定度和任意不确定度，有利于提高预测精度。