Double-layer network propagation model establishment method considering time-varying forgetting factor

The invention relates to a method for establishing a double-layer network propagation model considering a time-varying forgetting factor. The method comprises the following steps: step 1, establishing an MMCA equation set of a UAU-SEIR model; 2, considering the time-varying characteristic of an information layer forgetting factor, and setting a dynamic equation of an individual forgetting probability; and 3, simplifying the dynamic equation in the step 2, and deducing a propagation threshold value of the model. According to the method, the characteristics of the infectious diseases are analyzed by utilizing an MMCA algorithm, a transmission threshold expression of the infectious diseases is derived, the proposed model is further analyzed through a large number of simulation experiments, and the influence of a latent state transition probability, a forgetting probability and an infection attenuation factor on the transmission of the infectious diseases is discussed. 本发明是一种考虑时变遗忘因素的双层网络传播模型建立方法，包括如下步骤：步骤1：建立UAU