Method for predicting academic achievement development trend of student group through model

The invention discloses a method for predicting the academic achievement development trend of a student group through a model, and belongs to the technical field of education evaluation. According tothe method, a Markov matrix chain is used as a very good model for predicting the population academic development change trend. A prediction model is established in combination with an equivalent testsystem and a Markov process principle, and an effective automatic tool is provided for teaching of teachers and teaching management of schools. The prediction method can obtain three different prediction trends: a downswing trend, a rising trend and a gentle trend, and teachers adjust the teaching progress and method strategies according to prediction conditions, so that the teaching management work of schools goes to a new step. 一种模型预测学生群体学业成绩发展趋势的方法，这属于教育评价的技术领域。该方法采用"马尔可夫矩阵链"作为预测群体学业发展变化趋势是非常好的模型。结合等价测题系统与马尔可夫过程原理建立的预测模型，为教师的教学、学校的教学管理提供了有效的自动化工具；该预测方法可以得到三种不同的预测趋势：呈下滑趋势、呈上升趋势和呈平缓趋势，教师根据预测情况调整教学进度和方法策略，使学校的教学管理工作迈上