Method for analyzing uncertainty of accident reproduction result under complex uncertain condition

The invention provides a method for analyzing uncertainty of an accident reproduction result under a complex uncertain condition in order to solve the problem that an existing research result does nothave a comprehensive scheme for systematically solving the problems of calculation uncertainty, unce...

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Hauptverfasser: ZOU TIEFANG, LIU ZHUZI
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LIU ZHUZI
description The invention provides a method for analyzing uncertainty of an accident reproduction result under a complex uncertain condition in order to solve the problem that an existing research result does nothave a comprehensive scheme for systematically solving the problems of calculation uncertainty, uncertain result discrimination and multi-source result fusion. The method comprises the steps of obtaining a plurality of uncertain accident reproduction results according to traces, different models and an existing calculation uncertainty analysis method, determining n3 sub-intervals of a final output result according to the uncertain accident reproduction results, evaluating the n3 sub-intervals by using the obtained multi-model uncertain results to obtain an evaluation matrix of the models to the sub-intervals, and further calculating the reliability of each model according to the evaluation matrix; and after the obvious abnormal reliability model and the result thereof are eliminated, calculating probability infor
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subjects CALCULATING
COMPUTING
COUNTING
DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES
PHYSICS
SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
title Method for analyzing uncertainty of accident reproduction result under complex uncertain condition
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