Method for analyzing uncertainty of accident reproduction result under complex uncertain condition

The invention provides a method for analyzing uncertainty of an accident reproduction result under a complex uncertain condition in order to solve the problem that an existing research result does nothave a comprehensive scheme for systematically solving the problems of calculation uncertainty, unce...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser: ZOU TIEFANG, LIU ZHUZI
Format: Patent
Sprache:chi ; eng
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:The invention provides a method for analyzing uncertainty of an accident reproduction result under a complex uncertain condition in order to solve the problem that an existing research result does nothave a comprehensive scheme for systematically solving the problems of calculation uncertainty, uncertain result discrimination and multi-source result fusion. The method comprises the steps of obtaining a plurality of uncertain accident reproduction results according to traces, different models and an existing calculation uncertainty analysis method, determining n3 sub-intervals of a final output result according to the uncertain accident reproduction results, evaluating the n3 sub-intervals by using the obtained multi-model uncertain results to obtain an evaluation matrix of the models to the sub-intervals, and further calculating the reliability of each model according to the evaluation matrix; and after the obvious abnormal reliability model and the result thereof are eliminated, calculating probability infor