Quantitative prediction method for regional air temperature change

The invention relates to the field of meteorology, in particular to a quantitative prediction method for regional temperature change, which comprises the following steps: for a to-be-predicted region,acquiring historical data of temperature in a predetermined time period; performing data noise reduction and feature mining on the historical data by adopting variational mode decomposition to obtaincomponents of the historical data; for each component, establishing a differential autoregressive moving average model for prediction to obtain a prediction result of each component; and carrying outvariational mode decomposition reconstruction on the prediction result of each component to obtain a prediction result of the to-be-predicted area. According to the method, the data requirement can be reduced on the basis of simplifying the analysis process, and the prediction precision can be met. 本发明涉及气象学领域，尤其涉及区域气温变化的定量预测方法，包括：针对待预测区域，获取预定时间段内温度的历史数据；采用变分模态分解对历史数据进行数据降噪与特征挖掘，得到历史数据的分量；针对每个分量，建立差分自回归移动平均模型进行预测，得到各分量的预测结果