Peak regulation demand-based medium-and-long-term wind curtailment risk assessment method and device for power system

The invention discloses a peak regulation demand-based medium-and-long-term wind curtailment risk assessment method and device for a power system, and the method comprises the steps: analyzing the peak regulation demand of a system after large-scale wind power access based on original system data; quantitatively analyzing the daily peak regulation capacity of the system after large-scale wind power access and establishing a daily peak load model; and proposing a wind curtailment risk index calculation method containing a large-scale wind power system. The influence of wind power uncertainty characteristics on system operation can be reflected, and the wind power acceptance capability of the system and the wind curtailment risk faced by medium-and-long-term operation planning are comprehensively measured. 本发明公开一种基于调峰需求的电力系统中长期弃风风险评估方法及装置，包括基于原始系统数据，分析大规模风电接入后的系统的调峰需求；定量分析大规模风电接入后系统的日调峰能力并建立日尖峰负荷模型；提出含大规模风电系统的弃风风险指标计算方法。本发明可以体现风电不确定性特征对系统运行的影响，全面度量系统的风电接纳能力和中长期运行规划面临的弃风风险。