Typhoon multivariable set sensitivity analysis method, typhoon forecasting method and typhoon forecasting system

The invention discloses a typhoon multivariable set sensitivity analysis method, a typhoon forecasting method and a typhoon forecasting system. According to the typhoon multivariable ensemble sensitivity analysis method, based on ensemble prediction of typhoon, a multivariable linear regression model is established through an ensemble prediction response function and an influence factor of an analysis field, and a multivariable regression coefficient is calculated. When disturbance of a certain variable of a certain grid point of a given analysis field mode is given, the increment of the analysis field is calculated according to the correlation between the variable of the grid point and other variables except the variable of the grid point in the influence factors, constraint is conductedthrough a localization function, and the change of a forecast response function is estimated in combination with a multivariable regression coefficient. Therefore, the initial key area and the variable influencing typhoon for