Rockfill dam settlement sequential prediction method

The invention provides a rockfill dam settlement sequential prediction method. The rockfill dam settlement sequential prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps: prior distribution of rockfill dam material parameters is determined; collecting rockfill dam monitoring data in an i (i = 1, 2,and the like, N) th time period from a first time period, determining statistical characteristics of a monitoring error and a model error, and constructing a likelihood function of the i time period; joint period i-1 (i is greater than or equal to 2) posteriori distribution and a likelihood function of a time period i, and a Bayesian equation of an i-th time period is constructed; Using a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method to solve the Bayesian equation of the ith time period; predicting the settlement of the rockfill dam based on the rockfill material parameters updated in the ith step; and taking the rockfill material parameter posterior distribution obtained in theith time period as the p