New energy grid-connected operation simulation method

The invention discloses a new energy grid-connected operation simulation method. Firstly, a wind speed probability density function is established according to the characteristics of randomness, uncontrollability and the like of the wind speed. Meanwhile, the probability density model of wind turbine generator output is derived based on the relation between fan output and the wind speed. After that, for the illumination volatility, a solar irradiance probability distribution model is established and wind power and photovoltaic output characteristics are obtained. Furthermore, a new energy output model is obtained. The obtained new energy output model is embedded into an optimized economic dispatching model which takes the minimum system power generation cost as an objective function and takes consideration of network security constraints. Finally, a refined daily operation simulation model is obtained. 一种新能源并网运行模拟方法。首先针对风速的随机性和不可控性等特性建立风速概率密度函数，基于风机出力与风速的关系导出风电机组出力的概率密度模型；针对光照的波动性，建立太阳辐照度概率分布模型，得到风电、光伏出力特性，进而