Risk calculation method for credibility of wind power prediction at load peak time

The invention belongs to the technical field of power grids, and especially relates to a risk calculation method for credibility of wind power prediction at a load peak time. In a current power systemwhere a large number of wind power is continuously connected to a grid, wind power prediction credibility risk calculation is carried out, and risk evaluation is performed on a wind power predictionresult. According to the method, firstly, data acquisition is carried out, since a dispatching system of the power grids faces an uncertain wind power prediction result of the power grids, when day-ahead scheduling is performed, an wind power enterprise provides output prediction credibility for the power grids in the probability; when mid-day scheduling is performed, the wind power enterprise provides actual output in the ratio; when a scheduling cycle ends, the power is scheduled for a part of power grids that do not meet load demands of the power grids; the part that exceeds prediction output becomes the wind curtai