一种河口沿程淡水保证率的反演方法

本发明公开了一种河口沿程淡水保证率的反演方法，包括以下步骤：根据河口历史淡水径流和潮位资料，得到人为取水影响后的径流分布函数；B.建立径流-潮位二维联合分布及其联合风险概率模型；C.基于河口实测地形，构建三维水动力和盐度数学模型；D.基于步骤C所得的三维水动力和盐度数学模型，以径流、潮位的逐项组合来进行盐水入侵模拟，得各河段不发生盐水入侵的径流和潮位区间，即淡水保证区；E.基于步骤B和步骤D计算出盐水入侵的河口沿程淡水保证率；F.根据步骤E得出的河口沿程淡水保证率，进而得出不同取水规模下的临界取水断面。本发明的有益效果为：提供盐水入侵风险评估方法，能够实现河口沿程淡水保证率的精准量化。 The invention discloses a method for inversion of freshwater assurance rate along estuaries, which comprises the following steps: according to the historical freshwater runoff and tidal level data ofthe estuary, obtaining the runoff distribution function influenced by artificial water intake; B. establishing a runoff-tide level two-dimensional joint distribution and joint risk probability model;C. constructing a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and salinity mathematical model based on the topography measure in the estuary; D, based on the three-dimensional hydrodynamic and salinity mathematical model obtained in the step C, simulating the saline water intrusion by item combination of runoff and tidal level to obtain a r