Planning method considering uncertainty factor for power distribution network in industrial park

The invention proposes a planning method considering an uncertainty factor for a power distribution network in an industrial park. The method comprises the steps of firstly, building a probability load forecast model considering load uncertainty of the industrial park; secondly, performing graduation division on load increase of the industrial park according to a forecast result of the probabilityload forecast model, and converting uncertainty planning to load graduation-base certainty planning; thirdly, respectively giving out a typical transition net rack wiring planning result taking a cable net as main and a typical transition net rack wiring planning result taking an overhead net as main; and finally, performing power supply reliability and power supply capability evaluation on a typical transition net rack planning scheme by employing a Monte Carlo simulation method and a repetition power flow method. 本发明提出种考虑不确定性因素的工业园区配电网规划方法。该方法首先建立考虑工业园区负荷不确定性的概率负荷预测模型；其次，基于概率负荷模型预测结果，对园区负荷增长进行刻度划分，将不确定性规划转为基于负荷刻度的确