Hierarchical configuration weapon system kill probability determination method

The invention discloses a hierarchical configuration weapon system kill probability determination method. The method applies the random process theory and particularly comprises the following steps that a firing data error zs (k) of a hierarchical configuration weapon system, a fire control computing error zg (k), a fire preparation error zq (k) and a fire data error zT (k) caused by a gyrostabilization device, then all the errors are decomposed and merged, predictive coefficients of all the errors are worked out, and finally the kill probability of the hierarchical configuration weapon systemunder the condition of N salvos is worked out. The method is simple, easy to implement, high in precision and capable of effectively calculating the kill probability of the hierarchical configurationweapon system. 本发明公开了种递阶配置的武器系统毁歼概率确定方法。该方法运用随机过程理论，具体如下：首先测量递阶配置武器系统的射击诸元误差z(k)、火控解算误差z(k)、射击准备误差z(k)和陀螺稳定装置所导致的射击诸元误差z(k)，然后对各个误差进行分解与合并，计算出各个误差的预测系数，最终计算出递阶配置的武器系统N次齐射情况下的毁伤概率。本发明方法简便易行、精确度高，能够有效地计算递阶配置的武器系统的毁伤概率。