Antiaircraft gun kill probability determining method considering dispersion as having correlation

The invention discloses an antiaircraft gun kill probability determining method considering dispersion as having correlation. The method comprises the following steps: measuring a dispersion z(k) and a firing data error z(k) of an antiaircraft gun under a combat gun condition, and respectively calculating a mean value and a variance of the dispersion z(k) and the firing data error z(k); measuring a dispersion z(k) generated by vibration of a gun barrel of the antiaircraft gun under a ballistic mortar test condition, and calculating the mean value and the variance of the dispersion z(k); calculating a correlation coefficient of the dispersion z(k); according to a prediction equation of a shooting error z(k), calculating a joint density function of z(N) and z(N) through a recursion formula under a condition that the first N shooting are all off-target; and calculating a corresponding kill probability of the gun according to the given number omega of target destroying cartridges and the number L of the gun barre